UMBC Retrievers vs Marist Red Foxes
Friday, November 6, 2026
Matchup Analysis
Marist’s shooting edge is the decisive factor in this contest, with the Red Foxes converting half of their attempts from beyond the arc while UMBC manages just 25.806 percent, and the Red Foxes also outshoot the Retrievers 36.957 percent to 27.778 percent from the field. That disparity in efficiency promises a clear advantage for the home side in a low‑scoring environment.
The moneyline market aligns with the model’s confidence: the line sits at –198 for Marist, the pick side is home, and the strength is labeled “play.” The model assigns an 86 percent win probability to the Red Foxes, creating an edge of 0.195 over the market, which reinforces the attractiveness of the wager.
A look at scoring margins underscores the gap between the two programs. Marist averages 62.0 points while allowing 69.0, yielding a –7.0 margin, whereas UMBC scores 54.0 points but concedes 85.0, producing a –31.0 margin. The resulting 24.0‑point differential highlights the Retrievers’ defensive struggles and bolsters confidence in a comfortable Marist victory.
The pick is Marist –198 play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UMBC UMBC Retrievers | +170 ↑ | +4.5 ↑ | O 135.5 |
| MRST Marist Red Foxes | -205 ↓ | -4.5 ↓ | U 135.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UMBC UMBC Retrievers | +612 | +11.5 | O 116 |
| MRST Marist Red Foxes | -612 | -11.5 | U 116 |
Our Picks
Play to -12.3
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+141.50): This factor contributes +141.50 to the projection, favoring Marist.
- Combined Tempo (+67.50): This factor contributes +67.50 to the projection, favoring Marist.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+24.46): This factor contributes +24.46 to the projection, favoring Marist.
- Scoring Margin Differential (+24.00): Marist's scoring margin advantage of 24.00 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
Recent Trends
Marist Trends:
- The over is 1-9 in Marist Red Foxes's games in their last 10 games
- The over is 1-5 in Marist Red Foxes's games at home after a loss
- The over is 2-8 in Marist Red Foxes's games in conference games
- The over is 3-10 in Marist Red Foxes's games at home as a favorite
- The over is 1-5 in Marist Red Foxes's games after a loss
UMBC Trends:
- UMBC Retrievers is 6-30 straight up vs teams above .500
- UMBC Retrievers is 3-13 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- UMBC Retrievers is 8-1 ATS favorite
- UMBC Retrievers is 1-7 straight up on the road as an underdog
- UMBC Retrievers is 9-2 ATS vs teams below .500
Matchup Edges
Marist
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Market Total Signal contributes +141.50 points to home projection
- Net scoring margin of -7.0 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Turnover-prone at 18.0 per game, creating extra opportunities for opponents
- Limited offense averaging just 62.0 PPG
- Playing on a back-to-back with only 1 day of rest
- Poor home record at just 40% win rate at this venue
UMBC
Advantages
- Points Allowed Differential contributes -16.00 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -31.0 PPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 14%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 0-2 (0-0) record (0% win rate)
- Defense allows 85.0 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- Anemic offense at just 54.0 PPG limits scoring ceiling
- On a back-to-back with only 1 day of rest for a road game