Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs 24 Vanderbilt Commodores
Thursday, November 5, 2026
Matchup Analysis
Vanderbilt’s shooting efficiency dominates the matchup, with the Commodores converting 60.0 % of field‑goal attempts and 36.842 % from three‑point range, while Wake Forest manages 52.632 % overall shooting and 30.435 % beyond the arc. The disparity in true shooting gives the home team a clear advantage on the court.
Wake Forest’s record against ranked competition is a stark 0‑14 straight up, a win‑percentage of 0.0 over a 14‑game sample, underscoring the Demon Deacons’ struggles when the stakes are highest. That winless streak highlights a vulnerability that could be exploited by any opponent capable of executing on both ends.
Vanderbilt also outpaces Wake Forest in scoring metrics, averaging 93.0 points while allowing just 47.0, a margin of 46.0 points. Wake Forest scores 83.0 points per game but yields 62.0, a 21.0‑point margin, leaving a 25.0‑point gap between the two programs that further tilts the contest toward the Commodores.
With a pass strength, the analysis finds no clear line to take – the -18.5 spread offers no edge.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAKE Wake Forest Demon Deacons | +950 ↓ | +17.5 | O 155.5 |
| VAN Vanderbilt Commodores | -1650 ↑ | -17.5 | U 155.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAKE Wake Forest Demon Deacons | +663 | +21 | O 176 |
| VAN Vanderbilt Commodores | -663 | -21 | U 176 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+155.50): This factor contributes +155.50 to the projection, favoring Vanderbilt.
- Combined Tempo (+71.25): This factor contributes +71.25 to the projection, favoring Vanderbilt.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+29.49): This factor contributes +29.49 to the projection, favoring Vanderbilt.
- Scoring Margin Differential (+25.00): Vanderbilt's scoring margin advantage of 25.00 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
Recent Trends
Vanderbilt Trends:
- Vanderbilt Commodores is 14-3 straight up at home as a favorite
- Vanderbilt Commodores is 5-0 straight up at home on a back-to-back
- Vanderbilt Commodores is 14-3 straight up favorite
- Vanderbilt Commodores is 8-1 straight up double-digit favorite
- Vanderbilt Commodores is 5-0 straight up on a back-to-back
Wake Forest Trends:
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons is 0-14 straight up vs ranked opponents
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons is 1-7 straight up on the road as an underdog
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons is 1-7 straight up underdog
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons is 13-34 straight up vs teams above .500
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons is 14-27 straight up on the road after a win
Matchup Edges
Vanderbilt
Advantages
- Strong 1-0 (1-0) overall record (100% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 93.0 PPG
- Home record of 100% win rate at this venue
- Elite defense allowing just 47.0 PPG
Disadvantages
- Opponent's 83.0 PPG offense exceeds home defense (47.0 PPG) by 36.0
- Allowing 47.0 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
- Opponent still holds a 13% model win probability
Wake Forest
Advantages
- Strong 1-0 (1-0) record (100% win rate) this season
- Potent offense averaging 83.0 PPG
- Stout defense allowing just 62.0 PPG
- Points Allowed Differential contributes -15.00 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Road win rate of only 20% away from home
- Facing a home offense (93.0 PPG) that exceeds road defense (62.0 PPG) by 31.0