UAlbany Great Danes vs Manhattan Jaspers
Friday, November 6, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The market‑vs‑model edge on the moneyline is the decisive factor, with the book offering UAlbany at 130 while the model assigns a 0.785 win probability, yielding a 0.35 edge in favor of the away side. The market signal shows Manhattan as the home team, UAlbany as the away team, a moneyline market, an away pick, a play strength, a market line of 130 and a model win probability of 0.785. That disparity alone signals a clear betting advantage.
The shooting profile underscores the disparity, as Manhattan shoots 26.923 % from three‑point range and 35.185 % overall from the field, while UAlbany posts 30.435 % from deep and 44.776 % overall. The better shooting efficiency on both the perimeter and overall marks a tangible edge for the visiting squad.
Scoring margins further widen the gap: Manhattan averages 57.0 points while allowing 85.0, a –28.0 margin, whereas UAlbany scores 74.0 points and yields 67.0, a +7.0 margin. The resulting margin gap of –35.0 points illustrates how the home team struggles offensively and defensively compared with the more balanced away team.
The pick is UAlbany on the moneyline at 130, a play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UALB UAlbany Great Danes | +140 ↓ | +3.5 ↓ | O 147.5 |
| MAN Manhattan Jaspers | -166 ↑ | -3.5 ↑ | U 147.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UALB UAlbany Great Danes | -366 | -9.4 | O 131 |
| MAN Manhattan Jaspers | +366 | +9.4 | U 131 |
Our Picks
Play to -8.7
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+148.50): This factor contributes +148.50 to the projection, favoring Manhattan.
- Combined Tempo (+70.75): This factor contributes +70.75 to the projection, favoring Manhattan.
- Scoring Margin Differential (-35.00): UAlbany's scoring margin advantage of 35.00 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (-34.74): This factor contributes -34.74 to the projection, favoring UAlbany.
Recent Trends
Manhattan Trends:
- Manhattan Jaspers is 4-1 straight up at home as a favorite
- Manhattan Jaspers is 4-1 straight up favorite
- Manhattan Jaspers is 5-11 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- The over is 3-6 in Manhattan Jaspers's games underdog
- The over is 2-4 in Manhattan Jaspers's games vs teams above .500
UAlbany Trends:
- UAlbany Great Danes is 6-37 straight up vs teams above .500
- UAlbany Great Danes is 5-21 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- UAlbany Great Danes is 9-26 straight up on the road after a win
- UAlbany Great Danes is 3-11 straight up on the road as an underdog
- UAlbany Great Danes is 20-53 straight up with 3+ days rest
Matchup Edges
Manhattan
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Market Total Signal contributes +148.50 points to home projection
- Net scoring margin of -28.0 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 0-1 (0-0) (0% win rate)
- Defense allows 85.0 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Limited offense averaging just 57.0 PPG
- On a 5-game losing streak -- confidence is fragile
- Poor home record at just 25% win rate at this venue
UAlbany
Advantages
- Strong 1-0 (1-0) record (100% win rate) this season
- Stout defense allowing just 67.0 PPG
- Scoring Margin Differential contributes -35.00 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Averaging 67.0 PPG allowed on defense