Stonehill Skyhawks vs Fordham Rams
Friday, November 6, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The most compelling angle is the stark contrast in shooting profiles between the two programs. Fordham has been a three‑point nightmare, hitting 39.394 percent from deep while Stonehill limped to 26.667 percent. The Rams’ overall field‑goal efficiency sits at a modest 31.884 percent, whereas the Skyhawks are converting at a healthy 41.935 percent. That disparity signals a clear offensive advantage for the visitors.
The betting market has opened Stonehill at a 16.5‑point spread, but the model values the Rams as a 3.1‑point favorite, creating a spread edge of 19.64 points in Stonehill’s favor. The market line of 16.5 against a model line of -3.1 underscores the upside, and the pick side is listed as away with a strength of play.
Fordham’s average output of 65.0 points per game comes with a defensive leak of 95.0 points allowed, yielding a -30.0 margin. Stonehill, by contrast, scores 84.0 points while conceding only 56.0, producing a +28.0 margin. The resulting gap of -58.0 points highlights the disparity in overall performance. Such a differential suggests the game will likely be decided well before the final buzzer, with Stonehill poised to dominate the tempo. With the spread misaligned and the margins yawning, the value sits squarely with the visitors.
Stonehill is the pick at +16.5, play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| STO Stonehill Skyhawks | +1800 ↑ | +19.5 ↑ | O 141.5 |
| FOR Fordham Rams | -5000 ↓ | -19.5 ↓ | U 141.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| STO Stonehill Skyhawks | -166 | -3.1 | O 149 |
| FOR Fordham Rams | +166 | +3.1 | U 149 |
Our Picks
Play to -2.4
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+143.50): This factor contributes +143.50 to the projection, favoring Fordham.
- Combined Tempo (+75.00): This factor contributes +75.00 to the projection, favoring Fordham.
- Scoring Margin Differential (-58.00): Stonehill's scoring margin advantage of 58.00 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (-57.22): This factor contributes -57.22 to the projection, favoring Stonehill.
Recent Trends
Fordham Trends:
- Fordham Rams is 43-10 straight up vs teams below .500
- Fordham Rams is 12-2 straight up on a 3+ game win streak
- The over is 1-9 in Fordham Rams's games in conference games
- The over is 1-9 in Fordham Rams's games in their last 10 games
- Fordham Rams is 8-2 straight up at home as a favorite
Stonehill Trends:
- Stonehill Skyhawks is 1-14 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Stonehill Skyhawks is 1-20 straight up vs teams above .500
- Stonehill Skyhawks is 6-36 straight up in non-conference games
- Stonehill Skyhawks is 7-39 straight up with 3+ days rest
- Stonehill Skyhawks is 14-59 straight up away
Matchup Edges
Fordham
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Market Total Signal contributes +143.50 points to home projection
- Net scoring margin of -30.0 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 0-1 (0-0) (0% win rate)
- Defense allows 95.0 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Turnover-prone at 16.0 per game, creating extra opportunities for opponents
Stonehill
Advantages
- Strong 1-0 (1-0) record (100% win rate) this season
- Potent offense averaging 84.0 PPG
- Stout defense allowing just 56.0 PPG
- Scoring Margin Differential contributes -58.00 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Turnover issues at 16.0 per game, amplified in road environments
- Road win rate of only 20% away from home
- Facing a home offense (65.0 PPG) that exceeds road defense (56.0 PPG) by 9.0