Utah Jazz vs New Orleans Pelicans
Thursday, November 5, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The biggest factor is the Pelicans’ superior field‑goal efficiency, posting a 49.596% conversion rate versus the Jazz’s 42.81%, even though New Orleans shoots slightly lower from deep at 32.367% compared with Utah’s 33.065% three‑point clip. That gap inside the arc should translate into a clear scoring advantage on a court where the home side already enjoys a modest 3‑2 record.
The betting market reflects a modest –5.5 spread for New Orleans, yet the model values the Pelicans at a far larger –12.3 margin, creating an edge of –6.78 points. With the signal’s strength labeled “play,” the disparity between market and model lines signals a lucrative opportunity to back the home side well before the line moves.
Injury news shows the Pelicans are missing two starters—forward Trey Murphy III and center Yves Missi—while the Jazz lose center Jusuf Nurkic. The home team carries an out count of 2, the visitors 1, a relatively balanced depletion that does not offset the Pelicans’ overall shooting edge.
The pick is Pelicans -5.5, play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH Utah Jazz | +168 ↓ | +5.5 | O 231.5 |
| NO New Orleans Pelicans | -201 ↑ | -5.5 | U 231.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH Utah Jazz | +350 | +12.3 | O 228.9 |
| NO New Orleans Pelicans | -350 | -12.3 | U 228.9 |
Injury-adjusted spread: -12.3
Injury-adjusted total: 228.9
Our Picks
Play to -13.2
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+235.50): This factor contributes +235.50 to the projection, favoring Pelicans.
- Combined Tempo (+116.96): This factor contributes +116.96 to the projection, favoring Pelicans.
- Pace Mismatch (+16.14): A 16.14-point pace mismatch could shape the game's flow, with Pelicans's preferred tempo likely to dominate.
- Points Per Game Differential (+14.86): Pelicans's per-game scoring advantage (14.86 PPG) indicates a more productive offense.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
Pelicans Trends:
- New Orleans Pelicans is 5-0 ATS at home as a favorite
- New Orleans Pelicans is 5-0 straight up at home as a favorite
- New Orleans Pelicans is 5-0 ATS favorite
- New Orleans Pelicans is 9-2 ATS in non-conference games
- The over is 0-6 in New Orleans Pelicans's games after a win
Jazz Trends:
- Utah Jazz is 5-38 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Utah Jazz is 11-70 straight up with 2+ days rest
- Utah Jazz is 6-49 straight up vs teams above .500
- Utah Jazz is 11-65 straight up after a loss
- Utah Jazz is 16-81 straight up away
Head-to-Head:
- New Orleans Pelicans is 3-0 ATS on the road vs Utah Jazz
- New Orleans Pelicans is 4-0 ATS vs Utah Jazz
- New Orleans Pelicans is 3-0 straight up at home vs Utah Jazz
Matchup Edges
Pelicans
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 121.9 PPG
- Riding a 3-game winning streak with strong momentum
- Market Total Signal contributes +235.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 3-4 (2-2) (43% win rate)
- Defense allows 120.1 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Turnover-prone at 16.7 per game, creating extra opportunities for opponents
Jazz
Advantages
- Away Streak contributes -4.00 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -11.9 PPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 22%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 1-6 (1-4) record (14% win rate)
- Defense allows 118.9 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- Turnover issues at 16.4 per game, amplified in road environments
- 4-game losing streak compounds road challenges