Chicago Bulls vs New York Knicks
Thursday, November 5, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The market is overvaluing the Knicks by 8.18 points on the spread, offering the Bulls a hefty +12.5 versus the model’s implied Knicks advantage of 4.3. This disparity creates a clear edge for the underdog side.
The Knicks have been shooting 35.714 % from three‑point range while the Bulls sit at 27.852 % from beyond the arc. Overall field‑goal percentages are nearly identical, with the home club at 41.868 % and the visitors at 41.614 %, suggesting the Knicks’ perimeter efficiency could be a decisive factor in a close contest.
New York’s offense has been averaging 106.429 points per game while allowing 105.143, a slim positive margin of 1.286. Chicago, by contrast, scores 112.571 but yields 128.857, resulting in a negative margin of –16.286 and a gap of 17.571 points between the two teams’ net performances. The Bulls’ defensive woes amplify the value of the large spread they receive.
The pick is the Bulls +12.5, a play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI Chicago Bulls | +427 ↓ | +11.5 | O 233.5 |
| NY New York Knicks | -570 ↑ | -11.5 | U 233.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI Chicago Bulls | +283 | +4.3 | O 219 |
| NY New York Knicks | -283 | -4.3 | U 219 |
Injury-adjusted spread: -4.3
Injury-adjusted total: 219
Our Picks
Play to +5.2
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+232.50): This factor contributes +232.50 to the projection, favoring Knicks.
- Combined Tempo (+113.25): This factor contributes +113.25 to the projection, favoring Knicks.
- Pace Mismatch (-29.86): A 29.86-point pace mismatch could shape the game's flow, with Bulls's preferred tempo likely to dominate.
- Points Allowed Differential (-23.71): The defensive scoring differential (23.71 PPG) favors Bulls, who allows fewer points per game.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
Knicks Trends:
- New York Knicks is 16-4 straight up at home as a favorite
- The over is 0-5 in New York Knicks's games at home after a loss
- New York Knicks is 16-4 straight up favorite
- New York Knicks is 6-0 straight up double-digit favorite
- The over is 0-5 in New York Knicks's games after a loss
Bulls Trends:
- Chicago Bulls is 1-9 straight up double-digit underdog
- The over is 0-5 in Chicago Bulls's games vs teams below .500
- The over is 2-8 in Chicago Bulls's games double-digit underdog
- The over is 2-8 in Chicago Bulls's games in their last 10 games
- Chicago Bulls is 3-11 straight up on the road as an underdog
Head-to-Head:
- New York Knicks is 3-1 straight up at home vs Chicago Bulls
- New York Knicks is 1-2 straight up on the road vs Chicago Bulls
Matchup Edges
Knicks
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Elite defense allowing just 105.1 PPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +232.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 3-4 (2-2) (43% win rate)
- Opponent's 112.6 PPG offense exceeds home defense (105.1 PPG) by 7.4
- Model sees 8.2-point edge favoring the away side
Bulls
Advantages
- Pace Mismatch contributes -29.86 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -16.3 PPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 26%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 1-6 (0-2) record (14% win rate)
- Defense allows 128.9 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- Turnover issues at 16.9 per game, amplified in road environments
- 4-game losing streak compounds road challenges