Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors
Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Matchup Analysis
Warriors head into the contest shorthanded, missing three interior pieces. Al Horford, Gui Santos and Kristaps Porzingis are all listed out, leaving the home side without any of its listed centers or a forward. The injury tally shows a home_out_count of 3 while the Suns have an away_out_count of 0. The Warriors sit 4-3 overall and 2-1 at home, whereas the Suns are 1-3 overall and 1-1 on the road.
Phoenix Suns is 1-10 straight up on the road as an underdog, a 0.091 win percentage in an 11‑game sample. That 1-10 record underscores a historic struggle when playing away without the spread advantage. A model assigns a home_win_prob of 0.77 to a Warriors victory, reinforcing the difficulty of the Suns' away underdog run.
The Warriors have been lethal from deep, shooting 40.0% from three compared with the Suns' 34.783% beyond the arc. In overall efficiency the home club posts a 45.854 field‑goal percentage, barely edging the visitors' 46.479 FG%. The market currently lists a -2.5 spread, yet the model projects a -7.0 spread for the home side, indicating a sizable edge.
Warriors -2.5 (play).
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHX Phoenix Suns | +115 ↓ | +2.5 | O 227.5 |
| GS Golden State Warriors | -136 ↑ | -2.5 | U 227.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHX Phoenix Suns | +336 | +7 | O 229.7 |
| GS Golden State Warriors | -336 | -7 | U 229.7 |
Injury-adjusted spread: -7
Injury-adjusted total: 229.7
Our Picks
Play to -7.9
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+227.50): This factor contributes +227.50 to the projection, favoring Warriors.
- Combined Tempo (+117.27): This factor contributes +117.27 to the projection, favoring Warriors.
- Common Opponent Performance (+27.00): When playing common opponents, Warriors outperformed by a 27.00-point margin, providing a transitive comparison signal.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+15.70): This factor contributes +15.70 to the projection, favoring Warriors.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
Warriors Trends:
- Golden State Warriors is 1-6 ATS at home as a favorite
- Golden State Warriors is 1-6 ATS favorite
- Golden State Warriors is 1-6 straight up underdog
- The over is 4-1 in Golden State Warriors's games with 3+ days rest
- Golden State Warriors is 4-8 ATS with 2+ days rest
Suns Trends:
- Phoenix Suns is 1-10 straight up on the road as an underdog
- Phoenix Suns is 1-10 straight up underdog
- Phoenix Suns is 4-13 straight up on the road on a back-to-back
- Phoenix Suns is 5-1 straight up favorite
- Phoenix Suns is 17-32 straight up on the road after a win
Head-to-Head:
- Golden State Warriors is 3-1 straight up at home vs Phoenix Suns
Matchup Edges
Warriors
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 117.7 PPG
- Riding a 3-game winning streak with strong momentum
- Market Total Signal contributes +227.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Turnover-prone at 16.3 per game, creating extra opportunities for opponents
- Allowing 114.9 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
- Opponent still holds a 23% model win probability
Suns
Advantages
- 4-day rest advantage over opponent's 2 days
- Points Allowed Differential contributes -9.64 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -12.5 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 1-3 (1-1) record (25% win rate)
- Defense allows 124.5 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- Road win rate of only 17% away from home