Chicago Bulls vs Philadelphia 76ers
Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The shooting disparity between Philadelphia and Chicago dominates this matchup.
Philadelphia’s long‑range game sits at 34.016 % from three while Chicago lags at 28.077 %. The Sixers also outshoot the Bulls overall, posting a field‑goal percentage of 44.084 % compared with Chicago’s 41.436 %.
Injuries tilt the balance further. The Sixers are missing two frontcourt pieces—Dominick Barlow, forward, and Ariel Hukporti, center—both listed as out. Chicago is shorthanded by one center, Nic Claxton, also out. That leaves the home side with a home_out_count of 2 and the visitors with an away_out_count of 1.
Turnover differentials reinforce the edge. Philadelphia forces the ball into the hands of its opponents only 12.143 times per game, whereas Chicago turns it over 17.5 times per game, a gap of –5.357. The Bulls’ higher turnover rate should feed Philadelphia’s transition opportunities.
The model backs a substantial spread advantage for Philadelphia at –5.0, while the market has set the line at –9.5. The spread edge of 4.5 points signals that the underdog Bulls covering +9.5 is the most attractive proposition.
The pick is Bulls +9.5, and the strength call is a play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI Chicago Bulls | +394 ↓ | +10.5 ↓ | O 240.5 |
| PHI Philadelphia 76ers | -518 ↑ | -10.5 ↑ | U 240.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI Chicago Bulls | +198 | +5 | O 222.2 |
| PHI Philadelphia 76ers | -198 | -5 | U 222.2 |
Injury-adjusted spread: -5
Injury-adjusted total: 222.2
Our Picks
Play to +5.9
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+238.50): This factor contributes +238.50 to the projection, favoring 76ers.
- Combined Tempo (+114.10): This factor contributes +114.10 to the projection, favoring 76ers.
- Pace Mismatch (-29.26): A 29.26-point pace mismatch could shape the game's flow, with Bulls's preferred tempo likely to dominate.
- Points Allowed Differential (-24.48): The defensive scoring differential (24.48 PPG) favors Bulls, who allows fewer points per game.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
76ers Trends:
- Philadelphia 76ers is 9-1 straight up at home as a favorite
- Philadelphia 76ers is 9-1 straight up favorite
- The over is 1-6 in Philadelphia 76ers's games vs teams below .500
- The over is 2-8 in Philadelphia 76ers's games underdog
- The over is 1-4 in Philadelphia 76ers's games at home on a back-to-back
Bulls Trends:
- Chicago Bulls is 1-8 straight up double-digit underdog
- The over is 0-5 in Chicago Bulls's games vs teams below .500
- Chicago Bulls is 3-10 straight up on the road as an underdog
- Chicago Bulls is 3-10 straight up underdog
- The over is 2-7 in Chicago Bulls's games double-digit underdog
Head-to-Head:
- Philadelphia 76ers is 1-2 straight up at home vs Chicago Bulls
Matchup Edges
76ers
Advantages
- Strong 6-1 (3-1) overall record (86% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Elite defense allowing just 104.9 PPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +238.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Opponent's 113.5 PPG offense exceeds home defense (104.9 PPG) by 8.6
- Model sees 4.5-point edge favoring the away side
- Allowing 104.9 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
Bulls
Advantages
- Pace Mismatch contributes -29.26 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -15.8 PPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 34%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 1-5 (0-2) record (17% win rate)
- Defense allows 129.3 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- Turnover issues at 17.5 per game, amplified in road environments
- 3-game losing streak compounds road challenges