Sacramento Kings vs Dallas Mavericks
Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The most telling factor here is the shooting profile, which tilts sharply toward Dallas. The Mavericks are converting at a 49.43 field‑goal percentage while the Kings sit at 45.167, and from deep the home side is hitting 34.821 % versus Sacramento’s 30.244 %. Those efficiency differentials give Dallas a clear edge in raw scoring potential.
Compounding the Mavericks’ advantage is a trio of key absences. Forward Tarik Biberovic, center Dereck Lively II and forward Santi Aldama are all listed as out, leaving the home club with three starters on the sidelines and the Kings with none. The home_out_count of 3 versus an away_out_count of 0 underscores a depth disparity that could hamper Dallas’ defensive rotations and rebounding effort.
The scoring margin gap widens the picture further. Dallas averages 114.0 points while allowing 111.833, producing a modest +2.167 margin. Sacramento, by contrast, scores 109.333 points but yields 128.333, resulting in a –19.0 margin. The differential of 21.167 points highlights how the Kings have been out‑performed on both ends, reinforcing the spread outlook.
The model recommends a play on Kings +8.5. With the spread edge sitting at 3.1 and the market line set at –8.5 for Dallas, the under‑dog line offers solid value, making the Kings +8.5 a clear play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAC Sacramento Kings | +241 ↓ | +7.5 ↓ | O 232.5 |
| DAL Dallas Mavericks | -297 ↑ | -7.5 ↑ | U 232.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAC Sacramento Kings | +374 | +5.3 | O 223.3 |
| DAL Dallas Mavericks | -374 | -5.3 | U 223.3 |
Injury-adjusted spread: -5.3
Injury-adjusted total: 223.3
Our Picks
Play to +6.3
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+231.50): This factor contributes +231.50 to the projection, favoring Mavericks.
- Combined Tempo (+115.88): This factor contributes +115.88 to the projection, favoring Mavericks.
- Scoring Margin Differential (+21.17): Mavericks's scoring margin advantage of 21.17 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+20.52): This factor contributes +20.52 to the projection, favoring Mavericks.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
Mavericks Trends:
- Dallas Mavericks is 2-8 straight up underdog
- The over is 8-2 in Dallas Mavericks's games with 2+ days rest
- The over is 8-2 in Dallas Mavericks's games in non-conference games
- The over is 8-2 in Dallas Mavericks's games in their last 10 games
- Dallas Mavericks is 1-4 ATS after a win
Kings Trends:
- Sacramento Kings is 3-12 straight up on the road as an underdog
- Sacramento Kings is 1-9 straight up in their last 10 games
- Sacramento Kings is 3-12 straight up underdog
- The over is 9-2 in Sacramento Kings's games in non-conference games
- Sacramento Kings is 2-8 straight up double-digit underdog
Head-to-Head:
- Dallas Mavericks is 0-3 straight up at home vs Sacramento Kings
- Dallas Mavericks is 1-5 straight up vs Sacramento Kings
- Dallas Mavericks is 1-2 straight up on the road vs Sacramento Kings
Matchup Edges
Mavericks
Advantages
- Strong 4-2 (2-1) overall record (67% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Home record of 75% win rate at this venue
- Market Total Signal contributes +231.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Model sees 3.1-point edge favoring the away side
- Allowing 111.8 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
- Opponent still holds a 21% model win probability
Kings
Advantages
- Points Allowed Differential contributes -16.50 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -19.0 PPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 21%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 0-6 (0-2) record (0% win rate)
- Defense allows 128.3 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- 7-game losing streak compounds road challenges