Anaheim Ducks vs Calgary Flames
Saturday, November 7, 2026
Matchup Analysis
This NHL matchup features Anaheim Ducks (8-7-1 (2-4-1)) traveling to take on Calgary Flames (7-8-1 (5-3-0)) at Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB. There's minimal separation between these teams in scoring margin. Matchups like this tend to produce tight, competitive games where every possession matters down the stretch.
Flames averages 2.4 goals per game, but they face Ducks goaltending that holds opponents to 3.8 GA/G. The visitors' netminding could limit the home team's Goal-scoring output. Ducks's offense puts up 3.7 GPG and faces Flames goaltending allowing 3.4 GA/G. The visitors have the firepower to stay in this one.
In NHL, Home ice is valued at approximately 0.28 goals. Flames will try to feed off that home atmosphere and put early pressure on the visitors. Our model projects Flames to win by approximately 2.5 goals. Within one standard deviation, outcomes range from Flames winning by 5 to winning by 0, illustrating the range of likely outcomes.
Our model's top contributing factors in this matchup are: Market Total Signal (+6.50, favoring Flames); Shots Per Game Diff (+3.38, favoring Flames); Away Streak (+3.00, favoring Flames). These features drive the core of our projection.
We lean Ducks on the moneyline at +110 with a 63% win probability. In a low-scoring sport like hockey, moneyline value is more reliable than chasing puck line payouts. Look for the moneyline as the primary play here.
Goalie Notice: This prediction assumes Dustin Wolf (Flames) and Lukas Dostal (Ducks) as the starting goalies. This is not yet confirmed -- if a different goalie starts, this pick will be voided.
Team Comparison
Starting Goalies
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANA Anaheim Ducks | -105 ↓ | +1.5 | O 6.5 |
| CGY Calgary Flames | -115 ↑ | -1.5 | U 6.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANA Anaheim Ducks | -168 | +2.5 | O 6.1 |
| CGY Calgary Flames | +168 | -2.5 | U 6.1 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+6.50): This factor contributes +6.50 to the projection, favoring Flames.
- Shots Per Game Diff (+3.38): This factor contributes +3.38 to the projection, favoring Flames.
- Away Streak (+3.00): This factor contributes +3.00 to the projection, favoring Flames.
- Goals Per Game Diff (-1.25): This factor contributes -1.25 to the projection, favoring Ducks.
Recent Trends
Flames Trends:
- Calgary Flames is 5-1 ATS on a 3+ game win streak
- Calgary Flames is 15-5 ATS after a win
- Calgary Flames is 18-8 ATS underdog
- Calgary Flames is 15-7 ATS vs teams below .500
- The over is 9-4 in Calgary Flames's games at home as a favorite
Ducks Trends:
- Anaheim Ducks is 1-6 straight up on a 3+ game losing streak
- Anaheim Ducks is 2-7 ATS favorite
- Anaheim Ducks is 5-2 ATS on the road on a back-to-back
- Anaheim Ducks is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games
- Anaheim Ducks is 4-8 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
Head-to-Head:
- Calgary Flames is 3-0 ATS on the road vs Anaheim Ducks
- Calgary Flames is 0-3 straight up at home vs Anaheim Ducks
- Calgary Flames is 4-2 ATS vs Anaheim Ducks
Matchup Edges
Flames
Advantages
- Home ice advantage worth 0.3 goals in our model
- Home record of 100% win rate at this venue
- Market Total Signal contributes +6.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 7-8-1 (5-3-0) (47% win rate)
- Goaltending allows 3.4 GPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Goaltending concerns with a 0.887 save percentage
- Limited offense averaging just 2.4 GPG
Ducks
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 3.7 GPG
- On a 3-game winning streak with rising confidence
- Goals Per Game Diff contributes -1.25 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 0.3 goal of home ice advantage
- Goaltending allows 3.8 GPG -- exploitable on the road
- Averaging 3.8 GPG allowed on defense