Tampa Bay Lightning vs Colorado Avalanche
Saturday, October 24, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The moneyline edge of 0.09 in favor of the Avalanche makes the home side the clear pick. A Denver crowd adds extra boost.
The Avalanche host the Lightning at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. Colorado enters the night with a 5-4-1 overall record, 3-1-1 at home, while Tampa arrives 7-2-0 overall and 5-0-0 on the road.
The market offers the Avalanche at -125 on the moneyline while the model assigns a win probability of 0.645. That 0.09 edge between market and model underscores the betting value on the home team.
Colorado Avalanche rides a 14-2 straight‑up record on a three‑plus game win streak, a win percentage of 0.875 over a sample size of 16. Such dominance in straight‑up outcomes adds confidence to the home side’s chances.
In net, Scott Wedgewood posts a save percentage of 0.923 and a goals‑against average of 2.04, whereas Andrei Vasilevskiy records a save percentage of 0.914 and a goals‑against average of 2.21. Both starters are listed as unconfirmed, but the Avalanche’s marginally better numbers tip the puck in their favor.
The pick is Avalanche -125, play.
Goalie Notice: This prediction assumes Scott Wedgewood (Avalanche) and Andrei Vasilevskiy (Lightning) as the starting goalies. This is not yet confirmed -- if a different goalie starts, this pick will be voided.
Team Comparison
Starting Goalies
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB Tampa Bay Lightning | +102 ↓ | +1.5 | O 6.5 |
| COL Colorado Avalanche | -122 ↑ | -1.5 | U 6.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB Tampa Bay Lightning | +182 | +0.6 | O 7.5 |
| COL Colorado Avalanche | -182 | -0.6 | U 7.5 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+6.50): This factor contributes +6.50 to the projection, favoring Avalanche.
- Away Streak (+3.00): This factor contributes +3.00 to the projection, favoring Avalanche.
- Home Streak (-2.00): This factor contributes -2.00 to the projection, favoring Lightning.
- Home Ice (+1.00): This factor contributes +1.00 to the projection, favoring Avalanche.
Recent Trends
Avalanche Trends:
- Colorado Avalanche is 14-2 straight up on a 3+ game win streak
- Colorado Avalanche is 11-2 straight up with 3+ days rest
- Colorado Avalanche is 33-16 straight up with 2+ days rest
- Colorado Avalanche is 24-11 straight up vs teams below .500
- Colorado Avalanche is 3-8 ATS vs teams above .500
Lightning Trends:
- The over is 5-0 in Tampa Bay Lightning's games on the road as an underdog
- The over is 7-1 in Tampa Bay Lightning's games on the road on a back-to-back
- Tampa Bay Lightning is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games
- The over is 5-0 in Tampa Bay Lightning's games underdog
- The over is 7-1 in Tampa Bay Lightning's games on a back-to-back
Matchup Edges
Avalanche
Advantages
- Home ice advantage worth 0.3 goals in our model
- Strong offense averaging 4.1 GPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +6.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Goaltending concerns with a 0.897 save percentage
- Model sees 0.9-point edge favoring the away side
- Allowing 3.0 GPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
Lightning
Advantages
- Strong 7-2-0 (5-0-0) record (78% win rate) this season
- Potent offense averaging 3.4 GPG
- Stout goaltending allowing just 2.6 GPG
- On a 3-game winning streak with rising confidence
- Home Streak contributes -2.00 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 0.3 goal of home ice advantage
- Model win probability of just 35% on the road
- Averaging 2.6 GPG allowed on defense