Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, November 8, 2026
Matchup Analysis
This NFL matchup features Arizona Cardinals (3-5 (0-3)) traveling to take on Seattle Seahawks (4-4 (3-2)) at Lumen Field, Seattle, WA. The Seahawks hold a commanding statistical edge this season, outperforming the Cardinals by 11.1 points per game in scoring margin. That gap is significant enough to expect a lopsided contest.
Seahawks's 23.1 PPG offense runs into a Cardinals defense that surrenders only 29.8 PPG. Expect the home team to face tougher sledding than usual on the offensive end. Cardinals averages 21.9 PPG, and the Seahawks defense has been conceding 19.9 PPG. That gap gives the road team a realistic path to putting points on the board.
In NFL, Home field is valued at approximately 2.0 points. Seahawks will try to feed off that home atmosphere and put early pressure on the visitors. This shapes up as a lopsided affair. Our model projects Seahawks ahead by 13.5 points -- a margin that suggests this game could be decided well before the final buzzer. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Seahawks losing by 0 to losing by 0.
Our model diverges significantly from the market here. The 5.0-point discrepancy on Seahawks suggests the oddsmakers may be overreacting to recent results or undervaluing a key statistical trend that our model has identified.
Our model disagrees with the market's -8.5 line, identifying a 5.0-point edge favoring Seahawks. Our line: Seahawks -13.5. The total picture is equally interesting -- we project 47 against the posted 39.5, suggesting value may exist on multiple fronts.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI Arizona Cardinals | +400 ↑ | +9.5 ↑ | O 40.5 |
| SEA Seattle Seahawks | -535 ↓ | -9.5 ↓ | U 40.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI Arizona Cardinals | +513 | +13.5 | O 47.3 |
| SEA Seattle Seahawks | -513 | -13.5 | U 47.3 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Seahawks has a +11.1 scoring margin edge
- Home field advantage adds 2.0 points for Seahawks
- Expected scoring: Seahawks ~26, Cardinals ~21 (total ~47)
Recent Trends
Cardinals Trends:
- Arizona Cardinals is 4-1 ATS away
- Arizona Cardinals is 4-1 ATS in non-conference games
- Arizona Cardinals is 4-1 ATS in their last 10 games
Matchup Edges
Seahawks
Advantages
- Home field advantage worth 2.0 points in our model
- Elite defense allowing just 19.9 PPG
- Net scoring margin of +3.2 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Allowing 19.9 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
- Opponent still holds a 16% model win probability
- Combined opponent scoring of 20.9 PPG creates variance risk
Cardinals
Advantages
- Road win rate of 60% -- proven road warriors
- Net scoring margin of -7.9 PPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 16%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 2.0 point of home field advantage
- Struggling with a 3-5 (0-3) record (38% win rate)
- Defense allows 29.8 PPG -- exploitable on the road