Marist Red Foxes vs UMass Lowell River Hawks
Sunday, November 8, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The key factor in this contest is the shooting profile of the two squads. UMass Lowell posts a field‑goal percentage of 54.198 and a three‑point clip of 40.0, while Marist lags at 40.741 from the floor and 40.909 from beyond the arc. The disparity inside the paint and from distance gives the home side a clear advantage in offensive efficiency.
Scoring margins further widen the gap between the programs. The River Hawks average 96.0 points while allowing only 59.0, producing a 37.0‑point margin. Marist manages 75.0 points and yields 74.5, a razor‑thin 0.5‑point margin, leaving a total differential of 36.5 points. Such a swing suggests the contest will tilt heavily toward the low‑seeded hosts.
Ball security also tips the scale. UMass Lowell forces turnovers at a rate of 10.0 per game, whereas Marist turns the ball over 16.5 times, a negative differential of -6.5. The extra possessions should translate into additional scoring opportunities for the home team.
The verdict is a pass—no line is recommended.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| MRST Marist Red Foxes | +110 ↓ | +1.5 | O 141.5 |
| UML UMass Lowell River Hawks | -130 ↑ | -1.5 | U 141.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| MRST Marist Red Foxes | +865 | +21.1 | O 171 |
| UML UMass Lowell River Hawks | -865 | -21.1 | U 171 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+171.00): This factor contributes +171.00 to the projection, favoring UMass Lowell.
- Combined Tempo (+76.12): This factor contributes +76.12 to the projection, favoring UMass Lowell.
- Scoring Margin Differential (+36.50): UMass Lowell's scoring margin advantage of 36.50 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+34.53): This factor contributes +34.53 to the projection, favoring UMass Lowell.
Recent Trends
UMass Lowell Trends:
- UMass Lowell River Hawks is 32-3 straight up in non-conference games
- UMass Lowell River Hawks is 46-7 straight up vs teams below .500
- UMass Lowell River Hawks is 7-1 ATS at home as a favorite
- UMass Lowell River Hawks is 31-7 straight up after a win
- UMass Lowell River Hawks is 7-1 straight up at home as a favorite
Marist Trends:
- Marist Red Foxes is 1-7 straight up on the road as an underdog
- The over is 5-0 in Marist Red Foxes's games in non-conference games
- Marist Red Foxes is 1-7 straight up underdog
- Marist Red Foxes is 2-6 ATS on the road as an underdog
- Marist Red Foxes is 5-11 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
Matchup Edges
UMass Lowell
Advantages
- Strong 2-0 (1-0) overall record (100% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 96.0 PPG
- Home record of 83% win rate at this venue
- Elite defense allowing just 59.0 PPG
Disadvantages
- Opponent's 75.0 PPG offense exceeds home defense (59.0 PPG) by 16.0
- Allowing 59.0 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
- Opponent still holds a 10% model win probability
Marist
Advantages
- Points Allowed Differential contributes -15.50 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of +0.5 PPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 10%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Turnover issues at 16.5 per game, amplified in road environments
- Facing a home offense (96.0 PPG) that exceeds road defense (74.5 PPG) by 21.5