Northern Kentucky Norse vs South Dakota Coyotes
Thursday, November 5, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The biggest story is the 18.1‑point spread disparity between the 1.5 home line and the model’s –16.6 projection, giving South Dakota a clear edge. The market has South Dakota at +1.5, yet the algorithm expects a 16.6‑point victory, a gap that translates to an 18.1‑point advantage for the Coyotes.
South Dakota’s shooting profile reinforces that advantage. The Coyotes are hitting 32.0 % from three‑point range while Northern Kentucky is limited to 19.048 %. On overall attempts, South Dakota posts a 52.83 % field‑goal percentage compared with 50.0 % for the Knights, indicating a more efficient offense that can translate into a comfortable margin.
Scoring margins widen the picture further. South Dakota averages 95.0 points while allowing just 57.0, a 38.0‑point net. Northern Kentucky scores 84.0 points and concedes 76.0, a net of 8.0. The resulting 30.0‑point gap between the two teams’ margins underscores the Coyotes’ dominance on both ends of the floor.
South Dakota +1.5 – play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| NKU Northern Kentucky Norse | -135 ↑ | -2.5 | O 163.5 |
| SDAK South Dakota Coyotes | +114 ↓ | +2.5 | U 163.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| NKU Northern Kentucky Norse | +240 | +16.6 | O 179 |
| SDAK South Dakota Coyotes | -240 | -16.6 | U 179 |
Our Picks
Play to -17.4
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+159.50): This factor contributes +159.50 to the projection, favoring South Dakota.
- Combined Tempo (+78.00): This factor contributes +78.00 to the projection, favoring South Dakota.
- Scoring Margin Differential (+30.00): South Dakota's scoring margin advantage of 30.00 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+28.21): This factor contributes +28.21 to the projection, favoring South Dakota.
Recent Trends
South Dakota Trends:
- South Dakota Coyotes is 35-7 straight up in non-conference games
- South Dakota Coyotes is 46-11 straight up vs teams below .500
- South Dakota Coyotes is 35-10 straight up at home after a loss
- South Dakota Coyotes is 10-2 straight up on a 3+ game losing streak
- South Dakota Coyotes is 5-1 straight up at home as a favorite
N Kentucky Trends:
- Northern Kentucky Norse is 4-19 straight up in non-conference games
- The over is 6-0 in Northern Kentucky Norse's games vs teams below .500
- The over is 7-1 in Northern Kentucky Norse's games favorite
- Northern Kentucky Norse is 2-6 ATS on the road after a win
- The over is 6-2 in Northern Kentucky Norse's games on the road after a win
Matchup Edges
South Dakota
Advantages
- Strong 1-0 (1-0) overall record (100% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 95.0 PPG
- Elite defense allowing just 57.0 PPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +159.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Opponent's 84.0 PPG offense exceeds home defense (57.0 PPG) by 27.0
- Allowing 57.0 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
- Opponent still holds a 29% model win probability
N Kentucky
Advantages
- Strong 1-0 (0-0) record (100% win rate) this season
- Potent offense averaging 84.0 PPG
- Road win rate of 67% -- proven road warriors
- Points Allowed Differential contributes -19.00 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Defense allows 76.0 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- Facing a home offense (95.0 PPG) that exceeds road defense (76.0 PPG) by 19.0