Longwood Lancers vs Saint Joseph's Hawks
Thursday, November 5, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The most telling factor is the shooting profile, where Longwood’s 47.826 % three‑point clip dwarfs Saint Joseph’s 30.847 %, and the Lancers’ 59.77 % field‑goal mark eclipses the Hawks’ 42.951 %. That gap in efficiency sets the tone before the tip‑off.
Both teams have similar defensive numbers, but the offensive disparity is stark. Saint Joseph’s averages 73.303 points while conceding 73.0, yielding a razor‑thin margin of 0.303. Longwood, by contrast, puts up 123.0 points and allows 74.5, generating a margin of 48.5 and a gap of -48.197 in their favor. The numbers illustrate a clear advantage for the visitors on the scoreboard.
The projected total of 171.9 points sits well above the bookmaker’s 147.5 line, a diff of 24.4, while the model pushes the total to 196.3. The market appears to underestimate the combined output, reinforcing the narrative of a high‑scoring affair.
Longwood is a play at +10.5, and the strength of the signal supports taking the Lancers to cover.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| LONG Longwood Lancers | +525 ↑ | +11.5 ↑ | O 152.5 |
| JOES Saint Joseph's Hawks | -750 ↓ | -11.5 ↓ | U 152.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| LONG Longwood Lancers | -118 | +2.5 | O 196.3 |
| JOES Saint Joseph's Hawks | +118 | -2.5 | U 196.3 |
Our Picks
Play to +3.3
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+147.50): This factor contributes +147.50 to the projection, favoring Saint Joseph's.
- Combined Tempo (+85.95): This factor contributes +85.95 to the projection, favoring Saint Joseph's.
- Pace Mismatch (-51.20): A 51.20-point pace mismatch could shape the game's flow, with Longwood's preferred tempo likely to dominate.
- Points Per Game Differential (-49.70): Longwood's per-game scoring advantage (49.70 PPG) indicates a more productive offense.
Recent Trends
Saint Joseph's Trends:
- Saint Joseph's Hawks is 1-6 ATS in non-conference games
- Saint Joseph's Hawks is 8-2 ATS in conference games
- Saint Joseph's Hawks is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games
- Saint Joseph's Hawks is 35-10 straight up vs teams below .500
- Saint Joseph's Hawks is 8-2 straight up in their last 10 games
Longwood Trends:
- Longwood Lancers is 2-12 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Longwood Lancers is 1-7 straight up on the road as an underdog
- Longwood Lancers is 1-7 straight up underdog
- Longwood Lancers is 10-29 straight up vs teams above .500
- Longwood Lancers is 1-4 ATS favorite
Matchup Edges
Saint Joseph's
Advantages
- Strong 1-0 (1-0) overall record (100% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Home record of 100% win rate at this venue
- Market Total Signal contributes +147.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Playing on a back-to-back with only 1 day of rest
- Opponent's 123.0 PPG offense exceeds home defense (73.0 PPG) by 50.0
- Model win probability of only 46% despite home advantage
Longwood
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 123.0 PPG
- Pace Mismatch contributes -51.20 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of +48.5 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- On a back-to-back with only 1 day of rest for a road game
- Road win rate of only 33% away from home