Fairleigh Dickinson Knights vs Butler Bulldogs
Thursday, November 5, 2026
Matchup Analysis
Butler’s shooting profile sets the tone, with a three‑point clip of 36.364 % versus FDU’s 15.152 % and overall field‑goal efficiency of 47.761 % compared to the opponent’s 27.869 %. The disparity on the court is stark, promising a decisive advantage for the home squad.
Scoring margins reinforce the mismatch: Butler averages 96.0 points while allowing just 62.5, generating a 33.5‑point net gain. FDU, by contrast, puts up only 45.0 points and yields 109.5, leaving a –64.5 margin. The resulting gap of 98.0 points underscores the lopsided nature of the contest and hints at a blowout in Butler’s favor.
The market line sits at –24.5, yet the model projects a far wider spread of –35.1, creating an edge of –10.57 in Butler’s direction. The “play” strength assigned to this signal confirms the confidence in taking the home side despite the market’s more conservative figure.
The pick lands on Butler at –24.5, a clear “play” based on the shooting superiority, dominant scoring margins, and a model‑driven edge that eclipses the posted spread.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| FDU Fairleigh Dickinson Knights | +5000 ↑ | +29.5 ↑ | O 154.5 |
| BTLR Butler Bulldogs | -100000 ↓ | -29.5 ↓ | U 154.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| FDU Fairleigh Dickinson Knights | +686 | +35.1 | O 141 |
| BTLR Butler Bulldogs | -686 | -35.1 | U 141 |
Our Picks
Play to -35.8
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+151.50): This factor contributes +151.50 to the projection, favoring Butler.
- Scoring Margin Differential (+98.00): Butler's scoring margin advantage of 98.00 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+95.45): This factor contributes +95.45 to the projection, favoring Butler.
- Combined Tempo (+78.25): This factor contributes +78.25 to the projection, favoring Butler.
Recent Trends
Butler Trends:
- Butler Bulldogs is 2-16 straight up at home vs a ranked opponent
- Butler Bulldogs is 28-5 straight up vs teams below .500
- Butler Bulldogs is 2-16 straight up vs ranked opponents
- Butler Bulldogs is 1-6 ATS after a loss vs a winning team
- Butler Bulldogs is 6-0 straight up double-digit favorite
FDU Trends:
- Fairleigh Dickinson Knights is 9-48 straight up in non-conference games
- Fairleigh Dickinson Knights is 2-14 straight up on the road as an underdog
- Fairleigh Dickinson Knights is 5-22 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Fairleigh Dickinson Knights is 7-30 straight up vs teams above .500
- Fairleigh Dickinson Knights is 2-14 straight up underdog
Matchup Edges
Butler
Advantages
- Strong 2-0 (2-0) overall record (100% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 96.0 PPG
- Elite defense allowing just 62.5 PPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +151.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Turnover-prone at 20.0 per game, creating extra opportunities for opponents
- Playing on a back-to-back with only 1 day of rest
- Poor home record at just 43% win rate at this venue
FDU
Advantages
- Points Allowed Differential contributes -47.00 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -64.5 PPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 13%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 0-2 (0-0) record (0% win rate)
- Defense allows 109.5 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- Anemic offense at just 45.0 PPG limits scoring ceiling
- On a back-to-back with only 1 day of rest for a road game