Stetson Hatters vs South Carolina Gamecocks
Wednesday, November 4, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The shooting profile stands out as the decisive factor in this contest. South Carolina has posted a three‑point percentage of 31.068 while holding Stetson to 25.0, and its field‑goal conversion sits at 43.396 compared with the visitors’ 48.333. Those numbers illustrate the Gamecocks’ ability to generate efficient looks from deep and control the interior, giving them a clear edge in offensive execution.
The market versus model signal underscores the value of the spread. The bookmaker has set the line at -16.5 for the home side, yet the model projects a spread of -25.5, generating an edge of -9.01 in South Carolina’s favor. The market line and model line diverge sharply, and the pick strength is flagged as a play, reinforcing confidence that the Gamecocks can cover the listed margin.
The scoring‑margin gap paints a picture of dominance on both ends of the floor. South Carolina averages 74.938 points while allowing only 55.0, producing a margin of 19.938. Stetson, by contrast, scores 72.0 points per game but yields 83.0, resulting in a negative margin of -11.0. The resulting gap of 30.938 points highlights a substantial disparity that should translate into a comfortable victory for the home team.
The pick lands on South Carolina at -16.5, a play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| STET Stetson Hatters | +1600 ↑ | +18.5 ↑ | O 149.5 |
| SC South Carolina Gamecocks | -4000 ↓ | -18.5 ↓ | U 149.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| STET Stetson Hatters | +650 | +25.5 | O 146.9 |
| SC South Carolina Gamecocks | -650 | -25.5 | U 146.9 |
Our Picks
Play to -26.3
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+149.50): This factor contributes +149.50 to the projection, favoring South Carolina.
- Combined Tempo (+71.23): This factor contributes +71.23 to the projection, favoring South Carolina.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+32.69): This factor contributes +32.69 to the projection, favoring South Carolina.
- Scoring Margin Differential (+30.94): South Carolina's scoring margin advantage of 30.94 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
Recent Trends
South Carolina Trends:
- South Carolina Gamecocks is 3-19 straight up at home vs a ranked opponent
- South Carolina Gamecocks is 41-9 straight up in non-conference games
- South Carolina Gamecocks is 32-6 straight up vs teams below .500
- South Carolina Gamecocks is 3-19 straight up vs ranked opponents
- South Carolina Gamecocks is 14-2 straight up on a 3+ game win streak
Stetson Trends:
- Stetson Hatters is 2-19 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Stetson Hatters is 5-35 straight up in non-conference games
- Stetson Hatters is 2-14 straight up on the road as an underdog
- Stetson Hatters is 0-11 straight up double-digit underdog
- Stetson Hatters is 2-14 straight up underdog
Matchup Edges
South Carolina
Advantages
- Strong 1-0 (1-0) overall record (100% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Elite defense allowing just 55.0 PPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +149.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Playing on a back-to-back with only 1 day of rest
- Poor home record at just 40% win rate at this venue
- Opponent's 72.0 PPG offense exceeds home defense (55.0 PPG) by 17.0
Stetson
Advantages
- Points Allowed Differential contributes -28.00 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -11.0 PPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 13%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 0-2 (0-0) record (0% win rate)
- Defense allows 83.0 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- On a back-to-back with only 1 day of rest for a road game
- 3-game losing streak compounds road challenges