Washington Wizards vs Chicago Bulls
Sunday, October 25, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The decisive factor in this Bulls‑Wizards clash is the stark contrast in shooting profiles, with Chicago hitting just 20.513 % from three‑point range and 39.888 % overall from the field, while Washington posts 27.692 % from deep and 45.455 % on its attempts. That gap suggests the Wizards have a clear advantage in efficiency on both the perimeter and inside the arc.
The market has priced the Wizards at –1.5 on the spread, yet the model projects a much larger –11.7 differential, creating an edge of 10.19 points in Washington’s favor. The disparity between the modest market line and the model’s aggressive projection underscores a compelling value play, especially given the sizable spread edge reported.
Complicating the narrative, the Wizards have gone 0‑16 straight up on the road during back‑to‑back nights, a win‑percentage of 0.0 across a 16‑game sample. That bleak ATS record could pressure the team, but the shooting advantage and model confidence may offset the recent road woes.
The pick is the Washington Wizards –1.5, play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| WSH Washington Wizards | +105 ↑ | +1.5 | O 244.5 |
| CHI Chicago Bulls | -125 ↓ | -1.5 | U 244.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| WSH Washington Wizards | -307 | -11.7 | O 220 |
| CHI Chicago Bulls | +307 | +11.7 | U 220 |
Injury-adjusted spread: +11.7
Injury-adjusted total: 220
Our Picks
Play to -10.8
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+243.50): This factor contributes +243.50 to the projection, favoring Bulls.
- Combined Tempo (+116.00): This factor contributes +116.00 to the projection, favoring Bulls.
- Scoring Margin Differential (-26.00): Wizards's scoring margin advantage of 26.00 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (-25.88): This factor contributes -25.88 to the projection, favoring Wizards.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
Bulls Trends:
- Chicago Bulls is 5-0 ATS vs teams above .500
- The over is 0-5 in Chicago Bulls's games vs teams above .500
- Chicago Bulls is 1-5 ATS vs teams below .500
- Chicago Bulls is 5-14 straight up at home on a back-to-back
- Chicago Bulls is 4-15 straight up on a 3+ game losing streak
Wizards Trends:
- Washington Wizards is 0-16 straight up on the road on a back-to-back
- Washington Wizards is 7-36 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Washington Wizards is 6-48 straight up on a 3+ game losing streak
- Washington Wizards is 1-14 straight up on the road as an underdog
- Washington Wizards is 12-67 straight up after a loss
Head-to-Head:
- Chicago Bulls is 8-2 straight up vs Washington Wizards
- Chicago Bulls is 4-1 straight up at home vs Washington Wizards
- Chicago Bulls is 4-1 straight up on the road vs Washington Wizards
Matchup Edges
Bulls
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Market Total Signal contributes +243.50 points to home projection
- Net scoring margin of -25.0 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Defense allows 130.0 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Turnover-prone at 20.5 per game, creating extra opportunities for opponents
- Model win probability of only 25% despite home advantage
Wizards
Advantages
- Scoring Margin Differential contributes -26.00 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of +1.0 PPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 75%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Averaging 114.0 PPG allowed on defense