Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets
Wednesday, September 16, 2026
Matchup Analysis
Both the Orioles and the Mets are playing on back‑to‑back nights with just one day of rest each. The rest_edge signal flags that the away team, the Orioles, is B2B and has one day of rest, while the home team, the Mets, is also B2B with one day of rest.
The ats_trend signal highlights the Orioles’ recent struggles: after a loss to a winning opponent, Baltimore is 6‑13 straight up, a .316 win percentage over a sample of 19 games. The pattern suggests the club has been unable to rebound quickly in those situations.
Starting pitchers offer a mixed picture. Chris Bassitt for Baltimore posts a K/9 of 7.477, a 4.985 ERA and a 1.708 WHIP. Robert Stock for New York delivers a stronger strikeout rate at 8.723 K/9, matching the 4.985 ERA but posting a tighter 1.615 WHIP.
There is no line offered and no side recommended; the strength is pass.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL Baltimore Orioles | -103 ↓ | -1.5 ↓ | O 9 |
| NYM New York Mets | -117 ↑ | +1.5 ↑ | U 9 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL Baltimore Orioles | +112 | +0.2 | O 9.2 |
| NYM New York Mets | -112 | -0.2 | U 9.2 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Mets has a +0.0 scoring margin edge
- Home court advantage adds 0.3 points for Mets
- Expected scoring: Mets ~5, Orioles ~5 (total ~9)
- Run/puck line pass: model margin below blowout gate
Recent Trends
Mets Trends:
- New York Mets is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games
- New York Mets is 2-5 ATS on a 3+ game win streak
Orioles Trends:
- The over is 6-1 in Baltimore Orioles's games on a 3+ game losing streak
- Baltimore Orioles is 6-13 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Baltimore Orioles is 9-18 straight up vs teams above .500
- The over is 3-7 in Baltimore Orioles's games with 2+ days rest
- Baltimore Orioles is 5-2 straight up on a 3+ game losing streak
Matchup Edges
Mets
Advantages
- Home field advantage worth 0.3 runs in our model
- Elite pitching allowing just 4.5 RPG
- Net scoring margin of -0.0 RPG per game
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 69-82 (34-42) (46% win rate)
- Limited offense averaging just 4.5 RPG
- Playing on a back-to-back with only 1 day of rest
- On a 3-game losing streak -- confidence is fragile
- Poor home record at just 25% win rate at this venue
Orioles
Advantages
- Stout pitching allowing just 4.7 RPG
- Road win rate of 60% -- proven road warriors
- Net scoring margin of -0.0 RPG per game
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 0.3 run of home field advantage
- Struggling with a 74-78 (36-39) record (49% win rate)
- Anemic offense at just 4.7 RPG limits scoring ceiling
- On a back-to-back with only 1 day of rest for a road game