Model-generated · Publicly graded

Free ML-Powered Sports Predictions

Machine-learning picks for MLB, NBA, NHL, and NCAAB — spread, total, and moneyline with a confidence rating. Every pick is graded against the final score and published, wins and losses alike.

3,437 picks graded in public

41,019 games in our history database

4 of 5 recent models rejected by our own gates

100% of results published — no removals

View the Full Ledger How the Model Works

←

Friday, February 20, 2026

→

Confidence All Low (<60%) Medium (60-75%) High (>75%)

NCAAB 8

Ball State 8-18 (5-6)

SPR TOT -13.5 O 147.5 +13.5 U 147.5

Actual

SPR TOT ML -13.5 O 147.5 -1350 +13.5 U 147.5 +800

Projection

SPR TOT ML -7.2 O 152.4 -304 +7.2 U 152.4 +304

Sacred Heart 12-16 (7-5)

Fairfield 16-11 (10-3)

SPR TOT +4.5 O 158.5 -4.5 U 158.5

Actual

SPR TOT ML +4.5 O 158.5 +338 -4.5 U 158.5 -338

Projection

SPR TOT ML +5.9 O 150.5 +261 -5.9 U 150.5 -261

Saint Peter's 15-9 (12-1)

Iona 15-12 (9-3)

SPR TOT +1.5 O 140.5 -1.5 U 140.5

Actual

SPR TOT ML +1.5 O 140.5 -102 -1.5 U 140.5 -118

Projection

SPR TOT ML +0.1 O 153.6 +109 -0.1 U 153.6 -109

SPR TOT +2.5 O 129.5 -2.5 U 129.5

Actual

SPR TOT ML +2.5 O 129.5 +114 -2.5 U 129.5 -135

Projection

SPR TOT ML +3.8 O 143.4 +178 -3.8 U 143.4 -178

Milwaukee 11-17 (8-6)

Detroit Mercy 12-13 (6-5)

SPR TOT -1.5 O 153.5 +1.5 U 153.5

Actual

SPR TOT ML -1.5 O 153.5 -118 +1.5 U 153.5 -102

Projection

SPR TOT ML +3.8 O 147.5 +186 -3.8 U 147.5 -186

NBA 5

Minnesota 34-22 (19-10)

SPR TOT +13.5 O 239.5 -13.5 U 239.5

Actual

SPR TOT ML +13.5 O 239.5 +500 -13.5 U 239.5 -700

Projection

SPR TOT ML +13.9 O 232.9 +4315 -13.9 U 232.9 -4315

Atlanta 27-30 (10-15)

SPR TOT -3.5 O 243.5 +3.5 U 243.5

Actual

SPR TOT ML -3.5 O 243.5 -148 +3.5 U 243.5 +124

Projection

SPR TOT ML -0.2 O 236.2 -105 +0.2 U 236.2 +105

Milwaukee 23-30 (12-12)

New Orleans 15-41 (9-20)

SPR TOT +4.5 O 224.5 -4.5 U 224.5

Actual

SPR TOT ML +4.5 O 224.5 +150 -4.5 U 224.5 -180

Projection

SPR TOT ML +0.6 O 231 +117 -0.6 U 231 -117

Los Angeles 33-21 (15-10)

SPR TOT +7.5 O 228.5 -7.5 U 228.5

Actual

SPR TOT ML +7.5 O 228.5 +210 -7.5 U 228.5 -258

Projection

SPR TOT ML +4.3 O 228.2 +317 -4.3 U 228.2 -317

Portland 27-29 (16-13)

SPR TOT -1.5 O 241.5 +1.5 U 241.5

Actual

SPR TOT ML -1.5 O 241.5 -122 +1.5 U 241.5 +102

Projection

SPR TOT ML -2.8 O 235.6 -216 +2.8 U 235.6 +216

From Our Data Desk

All guides →

data analysis

Home Advantage, Measured Across 41,000 Games

We measured home win rate and margin across four sports in our history database. College basketball's home edge is enormous; MLB's is nearly zero.

our model

We Rejected 4 of Our Last 5 Models. Here's Why That's the Point

In July 2026 we tested five model candidates against strict holdout gates. Four failed. Here's the process, the numbers, and why we're publishing the losses.

data analysis

MLB Park Factors, Measured: What 1,400 Games Say About Every Ballpark

We measured run scoring in all 30 MLB parks across the 2026 season. Coors isn't even the highest — here's what actually matters for totals bettors.